How did the Confederacy believe it could win the Civil War?

The belief that instability in Northern politics could lead to a Confederate victory during the Civil War stems from the idea that political divisions in the North could weaken the Union's resolve and effectiveness in prosecuting the war. The Confederacy hoped that if they could exploit dissent, disagreements, and divisions among Northern political factions, it would undermine support for the war effort, potentially leading to a negotiated settlement favorable to the Confederacy or even inducing Northern states to withdraw their support for continued fighting.

While independence from food imports and support from border states were elements considered by the Confederacy, their reliance on Northern political instability was a significant strategic hope. Many Confederate leaders thought that prolonged conflict and the war's high costs would lead to war-weariness in the North, encouraging peace movements and making the Union less supportive of the war. Thus, targeting Northern politics was seen as a viable strategy for the Confederacy in their quest for independence.